Mortgage Market Update January 27- 31, 2020

January 27, 2020

Yesterday the Fed meeting concluded with an unchanged interest rate. The most important result of the meeting came from their comments on the Balance Sheet. They reiterated their plan to purchase treasury bills through April.

Reports show that Initial Jobless Claims was at 216,000 last week, down 7,000 from the week before.

Our first look at GDP for Q4 shows that it remains at 2.1%. China’s GDP will continue to be affected by the spread of the coronavirus. This is too likely to affect the GDP in other countries as the world is so interconnected.

January 28, 2020

Bonds and stocks started off higher today. However, we must take the rise with a grain of salt as there is still fear in the market from the spread of the coronavirus.

The Fed will conclude their 2-day meeting today and release news that will likely affect the market. They are set to release their statement at 2:00 ET with comments on the economy, inflation, and the Fed Funds Rate.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that last week mortgage applications were up 7.2%, applications to purchase a home were up 5.0%, and refinances were up 8.0% which makes them up 146% year over year.

January 29, 2020

Today we see stocks slightly higher after it fell on Monday with news of the coronavirus in China.

Today is the first day on the Fed’s 2-day meeting to discuss the economy, inflation, and the future of interest rates. We will be receiving more news on that tomorrow and more housing data towards the end of the week.

Appreciation rates from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index increased from 3.2% in October to 3.5% in November. This number is based off of the nine U.S. Census divisions and is considered the “gold standard” for appreciation.

The media likes to look at median home prices to measure appreciation but that does not directly relate to appreciation like the Case-Shiller Home Price Index does. This week it was much higher at 7.8%- showing that half of the homes were sold above and the other half were sold above the median.

New home sales for December were down slightly on Monday but are up 23% year over year with the median home price at $331,400. This is a great number considering the low housing inventory right now.

January 30, 2020

Stocks ares starting off very low this week after news that the coronavirus is continues to spread in China.

Right now there are 2,862 confirmed cases with a death toll of 81. There are also 5 confirmed cases in the United States.

The coronavirus is also negatively impacting China’s Gross Domestic Product. People are beginning to stay at home in fear of catching the virus. If this continues we will start seeing the GDP drop in other countries with the same fear.

It will be a busy news week this week with lots of data being released. We will be getting housing data, a Fed meeting announcement, inflation rates, GDP’s, and Personal Consumption Expenditures.  

January 31, 2020

Fears begin to grow as the coronavirus has reached over 10,000 in China and the death toll has exceeded 200. Stocks are much lower as a result.

The Fed’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Report shows that inflation increased from 1.5% to 1.6%. This is what the Fed uses to measure inflation and by this report remains muted.

Another measure of inflation that the Fed does not look at is the Consumer Price Index. The index is up 2.7% year over year compared to 2.8% in quarter 3 of 2019. This is a seemingly better way to look at inflation as it takes into account putting a roof over your head and out of pocket medical expenses.